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One of the most interesting clashes of this election season doesn't involve candidates at all, but rather a new twist on the old battle between gut feelings and dispassionate analysis. If you've been following the presidential election via TV and other mainstream journalism, you're likely hearing the race is very close -- perhaps even "tied." Typical is this headline last last week from the Washington Post's The Fix political blog: "WaPo-ABC tracking poll: Presidential contest as close as close can be." If you've been reading statistical blogs, though, word is that President Obama is very likely to win re-election with more than 300 electoral votes, far more than the 270 he needs.